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Computers by the year 2030
I read an article that says if progress keeps continuing at the current rate, we'll have consumer level ($2000) computers running at 100 million mips (100 trillion instructions per second) by the year 2030. That's the same processing power as the human brain. He said that'll make possible human level intelligence in computers. In the human brain, each neuron only does 1,000 cycles per second, but the brain is massively parrallel processing. It has 100 billion or more neurons, each with connections to 1,000 to 10,000 other neurons. Also, a million new connections are formed every second. The brain holds 100 million megabytes = 100 terrabytes of data. The brain uses 20% of the energy (calories) in the body and generates a lot of heat (just like the current PC's haha) which has to be removed by the body. That's some kickass ****. We may be running into limits with current chip technology, but new technology will be used to continue the rapid progress. Here's a quote from the article. I thought you guys might want to get a peek at computers of the future. ****************************************** Wilder possibilities are brewing. Switches and memory cells made of single molecules have been demonstrated, which might enable a volume to hold a billion times more circuitry than today. Potentially blowing everything else away are "quantum computers," in which a whole computer, not just individual signals, acts in a wavelike manner. Like a conventional computer, a quantum computer consists of a number of memory cells whose contents are modified in a sequence of logical transformations. Unlike a conventional computer, whose memory cells are either 1 or 0, each cell in a quantum computer is started in a quantum superposition of both 1 and 0. The whole machine is a superposition of all possible combinations of memory states. As the computation proceeds, each component of the superposition individually undergoes the logic operations. It is as if an exponential number of computers, each starting with a different pattern in memory, were working on the problem simultaneously. When the computation is finished, the memory cells are examined, and an answer emerges from the wavelike interference of all the possibilities. The trick is to devise the computation so that the desired answers reinforce, while the others cancel. In the last several years, quantum algorithms have been devised that factor numbers and search for encryption keys much faster than any classical computer. Toy quantum computers, with three or four "qubits" stored as states of single atoms or photons, have been demonstrated, but they can do only short computations before their delicate superpositions are scrambled by outside interactions. More promising are computers using nuclear magnetic resonance, as in hospital scanners. There, quantum bits are encoded as the spins of atomic nuclei, and gently nudged by external magnetic and radio fields into magnetic interactions with neighboring nuclei. The heavy nuclei, swaddled in diffuse orbiting electron clouds, can maintain their quantum coherence for hours or longer. A quantum computer with a thousand or more qubits could tackle problems astronomically beyond the reach of any conceivable classical computer. |
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