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Intel CPU prices going up?



 
 
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  #1  
Old October 15th 18, 02:13 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
Yousuf Khan[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,237
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.

Yousuf Khan
  #2  
Old October 15th 18, 03:58 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
SilverSlimer
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

On 2018-10-15 9:13 a.m., Yousuf Khan wrote:
Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.


I, for one, will not be buying Intel's chips going forward. The security
issues they had during the year were reason enough as is the fact that
their processors usually cost a lot more than AMD's for the same
performance.

--
SilverSlimer
  #3  
Old October 15th 18, 06:19 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
VanguardLH[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,307
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

SilverSlimer wrote:

On 2018-10-15 9:13 a.m., Yousuf Khan wrote:
Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.


I, for one, will not be buying Intel's chips going forward. The security
issues they had during the year were reason enough as is the fact that
their processors usually cost a lot more than AMD's for the same
performance.


AMDs were vulnerable, too. Go reread those security articles.
  #4  
Old October 15th 18, 11:43 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
SilverSlimer
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

On 2018-10-15 1:19 p.m., VanguardLH wrote:
SilverSlimer wrote:

On 2018-10-15 9:13 a.m., Yousuf Khan wrote:
Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.


I, for one, will not be buying Intel's chips going forward. The security
issues they had during the year were reason enough as is the fact that
their processors usually cost a lot more than AMD's for the same
performance.


AMDs were vulnerable, too. Go reread those security articles.


Ah, good to know. It seems that AMD eventually admitted that Spectre2
affected their processors too. Thanks for that.


--
SilverSlimer
  #5  
Old October 15th 18, 06:36 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
VanguardLH[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,307
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

Yousuf Khan wrote:

Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.


Every manufacturer has a maximum threshold for producing a product. A
bakery can only produce as many loaves of bread per day as they have
ovens. They cannot exceed that threshold without investing more money
when conjecturing long-lived increased demand. Without adding more
plants, Intel cannot increase their volume. Adding a plant or extending
an existing one costs a lot of money which is only be reasonably
qualified for expense if demand is expected to continue indefinitly, not
for a minor blip in demand. Demand has gone up and exceeded their
manufacturing volume. A company can overbuild their plant with
reasonable knowledge that demand will go up; however, if that fails then
all the expenses to build a new plant, expand an existing plant, or
re-tool a plant are wasted - and companies aren't in business to be
altruistic to non-achieved planning goals just so they could've made
more but didn't have to. The future can only be predicted, not observed
(at which point it becomes history).

Also, it isn't just about the CPU chips. Without the supporting
chipsets, the CPUs isn't usable. Missing hardware means lack of support
for, um, what those chipsets support. A car without tires isn't going
anywhere.

https://www.extremetech.com/computin...pu-prices-rise
https://www.techradar.com/news/intel...-14nm-shortage

Prices go up when there are shortages based on current demand. That's
normal business everywhere. With less or same supply volume but with
increased demand from more consumers clamoring for a product, what would
you expect to happen to the salesman's price? You're old enough to have
heard "supply and demand" but maybe you didn't understand it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capita...ply_and_demand
  #6  
Old October 23rd 18, 07:45 AM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
Yousuf Khan[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,237
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

On 10/15/2018 1:36 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
Every manufacturer has a maximum threshold for producing a product. A
bakery can only produce as many loaves of bread per day as they have
ovens.


By that token, then Intel is one of the largest bakers ever.

They cannot exceed that threshold without investing more money
when conjecturing long-lived increased demand. Without adding more
plants, Intel cannot increase their volume. Adding a plant or extending
an existing one costs a lot of money which is only be reasonably
qualified for expense if demand is expected to continue indefinitly, not
for a minor blip in demand. Demand has gone up and exceeded their
manufacturing volume.


But that's not the case here. Demand hasn't gone up, it's stayed mostly
the same, but they are having trouble supplying even the same number of
chips they used to easily supply with previous generations. For the new
8-core i9-9900K, they have apparently only produced about 500 chips
overall for the entire world! And so far no i7-9700K's at all! Add in
the problems with producing even i3's and i5's, something is wrong,
especially on a mature node like 14nm! I think it might have something
to do with having to compete against AMD: AMD can put out a 6-core or an
8-core quite easily, it just puts two quad-core CCX's together; but
Intel has to create a brand new single die. And the dies are much
bigger, so yield must be lower?

And today, there was a rumour that they had completely cancelled their
10nm program! Intel denied it later, but usually they don't bother to
address rumours unless it really hit close to home.

Yousuf Khan
  #7  
Old October 23rd 18, 06:45 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
VanguardLH[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,307
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

Yousuf Khan wrote:

On 10/15/2018 1:36 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
Every manufacturer has a maximum threshold for producing a product. A
bakery can only produce as many loaves of bread per day as they have
ovens.


By that token, then Intel is one of the largest bakers ever.


Being largest doesn't mean infinite production capacity.

They cannot exceed that threshold without investing more money
when conjecturing long-lived increased demand. Without adding more
plants, Intel cannot increase their volume. Adding a plant or extending
an existing one costs a lot of money which is only be reasonably
qualified for expense if demand is expected to continue indefinitly, not
for a minor blip in demand. Demand has gone up and exceeded their
manufacturing volume.


But that's not the case here. Demand hasn't gone up, it's stayed mostly
the same, but they are having trouble supplying even the same number of
chips they used to easily supply with previous generations. For the new
8-core i9-9900K, they have apparently only produced about 500 chips
overall for the entire world! And so far no i7-9700K's at all! Add in
the problems with producing even i3's and i5's, something is wrong,
especially on a mature node like 14nm! I think it might have something
to do with having to compete against AMD: AMD can put out a 6-core or an
8-core quite easily, it just puts two quad-core CCX's together; but
Intel has to create a brand new single die. And the dies are much
bigger, so yield must be lower?


You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the
news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess.

"In July, during its Q2 conference call, CEO Robert Swan said: ´We are
seeing demand signals in supply feasibility to deliver on our revised
expectations. Our biggest challenge in the second half will be meeting
additional demand, and we are working intently with our customers and
our factories to be prepared so we are not constraining our customers˙
growth.ˇ

No, I don't know everything about their market but it's obvious that you
won't even check some of your assumptions.

And today, there was a rumour that they had completely cancelled their
10nm program! Intel denied it later, but usually they don't bother to
address rumours unless it really hit close to home.


Come on back when rumor becomes fact.
  #8  
Old October 24th 18, 05:29 AM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
Yousuf Khan[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,237
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

On 10/23/2018 1:45 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the
news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess.


We all are, as Intel obviously won't tell us. Anything you or I say will
just be guesses. No point in mentioning it even, as it's assumed. But we
all have our years of experience to draw on, and our guesses can be
somewhat accurate.

Intel is having to produce six- and eight-core processors when it's used
to producing only quad-core maximum. It produced a lot of good dies of
quad-core, but a hex- or octa-core will have larger dies, and that would
make the number of good dies lower. A die that is twice as big will
result in an overall 75%-80% decrease in the number dies per wafer. That
includes wasted space along the sides of the wafer.

Whereas AMD is just continuing to produce quad-core dies all day long,
and if it wants an octa-core, it just gives you two of them!

Yousuf Khan
  #9  
Old October 24th 18, 09:39 AM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
Paul[_28_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 893
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 10/23/2018 1:45 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the
news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess.


We all are, as Intel obviously won't tell us. Anything you or I say will
just be guesses. No point in mentioning it even, as it's assumed. But we
all have our years of experience to draw on, and our guesses can be
somewhat accurate.

Intel is having to produce six- and eight-core processors when it's used
to producing only quad-core maximum. It produced a lot of good dies of
quad-core, but a hex- or octa-core will have larger dies, and that would
make the number of good dies lower. A die that is twice as big will
result in an overall 75%-80% decrease in the number dies per wafer. That
includes wasted space along the sides of the wafer.

Whereas AMD is just continuing to produce quad-core dies all day long,
and if it wants an octa-core, it just gives you two of them!

Yousuf Khan


I think the Ryzen is a single die with two CCX on it.
So your yield is for an 8 core chips.

https://wccftech.com/amd-zeppelin-so...4-cores-rumor/

Paul
  #10  
Old October 15th 18, 06:54 PM posted to alt.comp.os.windows-10,comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel,alt.windows7.general
nospam
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Posts: 134
Default Intel CPU prices going up?

In article , Yousuf Khan
wrote:

Intel's processor prices have been going up recently, rather than down.
They're blaming it on production problems. Intel has been well known to
be stuck on the 14nm node for a while now. Instead of going towards 10nm
they just keep incrementing their 14nm with plus signs, what are they up
to now, 14nm++++? Regardless, even at 14nm they were able to keep up
with production before, why not now? It's not even only their high-end
processors that are in short-supply, even their low-end value-oriented
processors like i3-8100 or i5-8400 are not available. This doesn't sound
like a high-demand supply shortage, it just sounds like just basic low
yields to me. Do you think that maybe even their internal tinkering with
14nm is making things worse for them? Perhaps, 14nm++++ is not as good
as 14nm+++? In the meantime, AMD is at 12nm and humming along, and ready
to migrate towards 7nm within less than a year.


intel is having a ****load of trouble getting to 10nm. meanwhile, 7nm
parts are shipping from other fabs.
 




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